News of the Day

 

FED Decided to increase bank discount rate after US Markets Shut
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f51cab54-1...44feab49a.html
Futures fall sharply to 1%

Hang Seng Down 3%
  Nikkie Down 1%
  Australia Down 1%
  SGX Nifty Down 1%
  US Futures Stayed 1-1.5% down

 

Expect around 2% cut in Indian Markets but dont be fool if it tries to reach for 4920+ before going back and giving away all the gains..

Go Long in Nifty Futures… Avg till 4865… Stop @ 4860

Add longs in Nifty Futures @ 4875, avg till 4865 .. target is 4920+ … Stop @ 4860

Trade Update: What happened to Gold, USD, & S&P 500

Today was another green day for US as the indices closed around 0.5% in green. Gold had a good run in the morning but later gave up most of the gains, not only for today but half the gains of yesterday which is expected as it broke out of the channel.

Let the pictures do talking, here is a chart of Gold… remember I have been suggesting it since $1050 levels.

Now there could be two stops… one stop could be at the pink line which does not appear to be the case if we look at the volume and if we are able to break past the pink line then it should inch toward the blue line and make a new all time high in Gold.

Ok, so what about USD… it is playing hide n seek with the ‘sweet zone’ and today once again went back in sweet zone to close near $80.5… which is good for bears to short again or add more shorts. Unless we see a close above 80.85 which was the last high, the momentum remains in the hands of bears.

 

Ohk.. lets look at S&P 500 chart and why this dead cat was bouncing.. yes it is a dead cat and no surprise if we see a gap down tomorrow in S&P 500. Look how it made a bullish wave which completed its target today… next is what? Possible 100% pullback of this rally and go below 1040.

I am keeping my call to stay short and add more shorts in Nifty, S&P, Dow and USD.. while stay long in Gold… we should further see a good rally in Gold.

Buy 4800PE @ 34 and look for a target of 4770-4780 by tomorrow in Nifty

 

 

Buy 4800PE @ 34 (LTP) and target is around 70-90 by tomorrow or till Friday

Sell Nifty Futures @ 4815, Stop 4822, Target 4778

 

 

Levels to watch out for today... Nifty Futures
Short around 4810, Avg till 4844, SL @ 4850, Book @ 4785
Long around 4785, Avg till 4775, SL @ 4770, Book @ 4810

 

Stay Short Below 4770 and Stay Long above 4850
Below 4770 expect 4685, above 4850 expect 4920-4930

Trade Update… US Down 1.5%

Related Blogs:

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/gains-only-gains-in-4800ce.html

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/warning-danger-ahead.html

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-market-is-looking-for-another-3-4.html

I warned you in the last India session , while we were still open to book 100% out of 4800CE and buy 4700PE.. I also suggested that US markets are going for a 3% cut first and then even further…

Watch us markets where they opened…

 

Hope you picked the 4700PE… as Nifty is going below 4500 this time… you going to get lots of profit… enjoy!!!

A Golden Penny…. golden gains!!!

Penny stocks could be of great return if executed properly. Here is the update on my prediction just 4 days back

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/lets-look-at-gold-once-again-and-see.html

and here are the returns.. I suggest to book 50% profit and keep rest with a SL @ cost

 

Gold Rush!!!!

Related Posts:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/us-non-farm-payroll-number-prediction.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/trade-update-gold-vs-dollar-which-is.html

 

I have been suggested “GO GOLD…. GO GOLD” and its keep on riding my predictions… hope you are having fun and great profits as well…

Let’s see how gold looks like today…

US market is looking for another 3-4% correction.. may be on Friday

 

Here is my prediction… that we might see another 3-4% cut in both DOW JONES as well as S&P 500 Index

Next week should be a good one for bears.. watch out you bulls.

Warning… Danger ahead!!!!

Do not be over optimistic about the recovery that we seen today. Nifty is possibly headed towards below 4500 mark very soon… use this as caution and pick some 4500PE for the month of February

 

Trade Update: Nifty 4800CE – 45% return in single day

 

Yesterday I gave a call to buy 4800CE between 82-84, it was actually given in yesterday market hours when it was trading near 85 and I suggested to buy 4800CE @ 82-84 , SL @ 75 and Target was 110-120

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/why-did-indian-markets-fall-today.html

Today, just after 1 day it touched my target and made an intraday high @ 118 before closing at 105

Why did Indian Markets fall today?

Entire world markets were trading higher, US closed near 2% in gains and even UK opened and stayed in green but Indian Markets fall like a stone… why? The answer is all behind the waves…

After completing its target I am expecting at least 50% pullback to 4785, while in SPOT Nifty it is making a pattern which is suggesting a pullback all the way till 4840-4850 in the SPOT Nifty

I have a call to Buy 4800CE @ 82-84 , Stop @ 75 and Target above 110 – 120 in coming days.

 

Trade Update – Gold vs Dollar , which is better?

 

Related Posts:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/us-non-farm-payroll-number-prediction.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

On 5th February just half an hour before the US Non Farm Payroll numbers were out, I predicted that USD is going to correct and Gold is looking for a rally. Today is 9th Feb and lets see how Gold vs Dollar & USD Index Futures looks like on the chart

Gold vs Dollar – Suggested a BUY @ 1050, LTP : 1078

USD Index Futures

Suggested to short near $80.75 and last trade price is $80

Lets look at the gold once again and see what its saying

Now if you do not want to play directly in the Gold then there are other options available… penny stocks :-)

Here are my favorite picks and stocks that are impacted directly by Gold Price

Flawless Diamonds India Ltd.  - BSE Code: 523576 , Last Price: 3.17

Rajesh Exports – BSE Code: 531500 , Last Price: 101.10

Vaibhav Gems Ltd – BSE Code: 532156 , Last Price: 31.05

Golkunda Diamonds and Jewellery Ltd – BSE Code: 523676 , Last Price: 16.85

Out of these 4 stocks, Rajesh & Flawless were down 4% & 1% today while Vaibhav & Golkunda both were up 5% and there were no sellers available in them.

Trade Update: Nifty 4700PE – 40% gain in one day

See these post first…

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/why-did-us-markets-pull-back-at-close.html

I suggested that Indian markets will rally on Special Session and they indeed did… I suggested to buy 4700PE just before the close of the special session trading and it closed at 93

Today market opened in green to shake out the weak hands but see the way it dropped to my first target of 4675 (day’s low 4675.40)

Here I suggested that we will see 4640-4675 and what a bounce after it touched my target.

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/trade-update-nifty-is-dead-cat-now.html

Today when Nifty touched 4675 we were in 45% return in 4700PE which was trading above 135.

Hope you booked your profit, if not they do not worry as market is looking to break 4500 very soon and I would advice to hold onto your 4700PE. You might see a day or two of pullback but that should not shake you out of the trade.

These are the “Golden Moments”

Gold has been beaten down hard and I see a potential up move in the Gold. This will support my take that USD is looking for some correction. I am looking for a 10% upside in the Gold from current levels and similar move can be expected in NSE Traded Gold ETF ( GOLDBEES )

Buy @ 1605

Stop @ 1575

Target @ 1750

Chart

GOLDBEES

 

Weekly Analysis of NIFTY-FIFTY Stocks

 

I have decided to do a Weekly Analysis of Nifty Fifty Stocks and look for any emerging wave.

Not every stock MUST fall in this falling market and here are my two bullish picks for this week

HEROHONDA
Risky Buy: 1582 (at price)
Conservative Buy: above 1620
Stop Loss: 1495
Target: 1800+

Chart

ICICIBANK
Risky Buy: 800 (at price)
Conservative Buy: above 810
Stop Loss: 775
Target: 1010+

Chart

Why did US markets pull back at close?

Everything was going as planned and US was down all the way to 2.5% most of the session but last 1 hour was interesting which pulled the markets back in green.

Here is what happen in the last 1 hour of the market.. it made a bullish wave in 15min chart

 

Now this could be a good move for Indian markets to make a possible Bull Trap. I am expecting Indian Markets to rally in a Special Session tomorrow between 10am-11:30am

Yes NSE & BSE both will be open on Saturday for 1.30 hours.. may be for operators? Whatever it may be.. I would buy at the money puts… looking at the way US market came back we might see 4750-4775 level where I will buy 4700PE and hold them for Monday

US Non Farm Payroll Number Prediction

Look at the USD Index chart and see what its saying….

 

Looking quite bearish to me… numbers should be out in another 30mins… my prediction is we going to sell like crazy… :)

When is this correction going to end… maybe within February

 

Look at this interesting chart of two totally different countries India & US… they both have a wave pattern and both are looking for completing the wave on the exact same date which happen to be 23rd February.

 

I would continue to ride shorts unless market touch down to those target lines… falling down.

I have my positional Nifty & DOW short call running from levels of 5275 & 10680 respectively..

USDCHF – Possibly going to correct from here

USDCHF is looking for a possible correction and considering the the NFP data tomorrow, which most likely going to be BAD, very BAD then this equation stands correct and it can get back to the center of the previous channel.

Trade Idea: Short on a break of 1.069

Stop Loss: 50 pips

First Target: 1.036

Second Target: 1.02

Final Target: 1.00

Trade Update: USDJPY – Picked another Top to short !!!

Yesterday I confirmed that the bull run in USDJPY is looking for a correction, at least for some 100-150 pips.

I suggested to short @ 91.17 while the Day’s high was 91.27 and current price is 90.35… above 85pips already

 

 

Related Posts: http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/usdjpy-completed-bearish-in-4h-chart.html

 

Update… it was quick 110 pips… and I closed my trade.

Update on US Numbers

Initial Jobless Claim:

Previous: 472.00K , Forecast: 455.00K , Actual: 480.00K

Non Farm Productivity:

Previous: 8.10% , Forecast: 6.00% , Actual: 6.20%

Unit Labor Cost:

Previous: -5.20% , Forecast: -2.50% , Actual: -4.40%

I updated you in advanced :)

 

What does this means to You as an Indian Investor. US equities markets are looking for a reason to sell. They been selling on good numbers , they been selling on very good numbers as well. Ofcourse they are going to sell on bad news :) So your shorts are going to gain.. I recommend buying 4700PE in Nifty

US Job Numbers looking bad to me – USD Index looking in bad shape

Just before the US Job numbers coming out in another 15 minutes… here is my prediction that they are going to be BAD. USD Index Future should fall all the way to 76.23 and EURUSD which although came too far below should go back on for a bounce above 1.41 in coming time

EURUSD – Trade Closed

 

Related Posts:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/trade-update-euro-is-in-superstar-once.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-short.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-pattern-looks.html

Euro traded almost near to my first target 1.4040 but was stopped at 1.4026 being the highest. The habit of closing all the trades on close of London Session kept me in profit.

I would suggest this advice to everyone, I trade mostly in London Session as being the most active session. Try an ensure that you close your position on the close of London session or atleast leave a Trailing Stop Loss of 10% of your overall profit.

I was able to manage only 105pips from this three day move and got out at my SL level 1.3850. Though I still have my believe that this is going to be a start of new rally in Euro but “rules are rules”

I will update once I get back into Euro…

Nifty Update – Retracement On Spot

Yesterday I suggested to short Nifty around 4930 and first target was 4880 and second is 4810.

Here is how chart looks today as of 1:30 pm

 

Related Posts: http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/nifty-positional-call-bullish-wave.html

Update: I am out of my position @ 4868.. it may bounce back all the way to 4905 but I am not in the trade

USDJPY completed bearish in 4H chart

 

Now I see a correction all the way to 89.80 , book profit and get yourself ready for a dive. :-)

Related Posts:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/usdjpy-was-rocket.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/usdjpy-should-bottom-out-near-8925-8910.html

 

Nifty Positional Call – Bullish Wave completed

 

See how it made a bullish wave yesterday and gap up today above it. Now as its target has been met, watch out for the trend line and see if that unhook from it. If it trade below this line before closing … may be by 3pm then buy 4700PE and hold till friday to see below 4800 levels in Nifty.

AUDUSD: A Crazy example of Wolfe Wave

 

This is one of the craziest example of the Wolve Wave pattern in AUDUSD pair today. People might say it was all driven by the news but Wolfe Wave practitioner believe that it was all there in the waves.

See this 5 minute chart of AUDUSD which did a great run of 200pips up and then quickly retraced back 100% to give away the 200 pips… once the wave is calm and silent… the water ran in the original direction… slowly and gradually.

A great day for very rare few who actually were able to trade this, I was busy sleeping so I missed this guy. Even if I were awake I never ride 5min waves they can be deadly in both ways :)

 

Update: see how water actually went in the original direction but calmly this time. Its like you throwing a heavy stone in a calm water which makes a big wave, that comes back and then slowly goes away…

Trade Update: Nifty is a dead cat now!!!

Yesterday I given a call to short Nifty for a target of 4835.. see today’s low… exact 4835 and it bounced back (on the spot)

 

Another trade suggestion was to Buy 4700PE around 65, it touched 45 yesterday which was a golden opportunity as well… I picked couple of them at 61 and some more at 46… currently trading at 69… I see a potential of 150 or above in 4700PE February Series.

Use all the rallies above 4875 as selling opportunity for a target well below 4700

Related Blogs:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/sell-nifty-intraday-target-4835-by.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trading-idea-nifty-put-options-1200.html

Update: Closed all my positions that I took at 61 @ 75… a gain of 11 per lot and still holding those taken at 45 with a SL @ 55.. fair deal?

Target Hit: USDJPY touched 90.95

 

Related Blog: http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/nifty-going-back-to-4000_23.html

USDJPY managed to touch down and break the target as well, next stop can come around 91.90… but watch out that may reverse the trend.

 

I would keep an eye on the chart and let you know once I think the trend is changing… for now its long.

Trade Update: Euro is the “superstar” once again

 

This is one of those rare thing that only Wolfe Wave can predict… Euro is beaten down hardly in past many days yet you got 3 bullish waves emerging in it. If you are not following WW then you were probably going to short Euro and Long USD… right? oh come on.. it had broken all the support levels it should fall below 1.36 in that way… but I guess not, it should bounce back and not like a dead cat this time.

Largest Wave: Daily Chart , Target : 1.4555

Second Wave: 4HR, Target: 1.4160

Minor Wave: 1HR, Target: 1.4040

All of them have single Stop Loss: 1.3850

Our Entry Zone: 1.3875-1.3885

My Entry Level: 1.3889

Current Level: 1.3920

Related Posts:

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-short.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-pattern-looks.html

Sell Nifty Intraday… Target 4835 by close of day

 

Here is a sell Nifty call on intraday basis, SL is 4905 and target is 4835 by close of the day

Update: Instant SL hit and stopped by 8 points of loss… target can still come but rules are rules… I am out of trade.