Trade Update: EURUSD, pattern looks confirmed

 

About this post: http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-short.html

Euro broken the support line as expected and may trade there for morning Asian session below that line or even for a day or two before firing back above this broken support line and reach for the target.

This is not the only signal that is bullish for Euro , there is another pattern in US Dollar Index which is looking bearish.

In the below image you can see a smaller wave inside a larger wave, now if USD Index goes above 79.85 – 80 level that can trigger even tragic wave for USD and it can fall all the way back to sub 76 levels but if that does not happen (which I assume will not) then USD Index will retrace to touch the support line of the channel where the smaller wave will complete its target.

To add to this overall bearish sentiment of USD, there will be non-farm payroll data on the 5th February for the month of January and by no mean that is going to be positive at all.

Remember the NFP data for month of December, released on 8th January? That gave over 250 pips rally to Euro within 1 hour.. that was killing money and was visible in 4H chart of EURUSD

Trading Idea: Nifty Put Options – 1200% gain

 

I suggested couple of friends to buy January Nifty 5000 Put options on 15th January when they were trading around Rs. 10… one of them bought 20 lots @ 10 for just 10,000/- in total.

Look where 5000 Put expired yesterday… at 133 or 1200% gain on investment. 10000 became 1,33,000/- (while the day’s high was at 175)

This is amazing, isn’t it… not every month is the same and not everyday is an opportunity like this.

Why did I suggested him to buy 5000 put in the first place when market was trading at near 52 week highs?

See this chart, on 15th January Nifty broke inside the channel and we knew it where it will land. February should be double the rewarding month as well. I see Nifty touching down all the way down to my first target 4600-4650 where I would probably buy the 4700CE or 4800CE and target would be at least 50% retracement which comes near 5000 mark.

 

For now, I am looking at buying 4700PE which is merely Rs. 65 or even 4800PE which cost me 95 bucks. Target is around 150 & 250 respectively in both of them in coming 2 weeks.

I will update you all once I think the selloff is done.

Trade Update: EURUSD Short

 

Update from this post

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/watch-out-for-139-in-eurusd.html

The pattern is looking quite confirmed but we will not jump and fire the gun. Hold the trigger until it break below the down channel line. Once it break the down channel and came back above that’s where we will go long.

I am expecting that to happen somewhere around 1.3875-1.3885

I will book my current shorts around that area and wait for it to come back above the line to go long and hold it for couple of days and see a very good rally back in Euro

 

Another Update: Euro correction looks complete as it broken below 1.39 and I am out of my shorts. I have my limit order at 1.3890 and SL is around 50pips

Wow as I was typing my order get filled in … and Euro retraced around 15pips in a fraction of minute.

USDJPY also completed its first target.

Watch out for 1.39 in EURUSD

 

Both trades EURUSD & USDJPY are doing excellent… EURUSD is down from 1.4170 to 1.3933 that is easy 230 pips in just 2 days. Similarly USDJPY is above 100pips from 89.30 to 90.55

Now dollar had a very good show but watch out for two important levels..

1.39 in EURUSD & 91.90 in USDJPY

They could possibly reverse the current trend and EURUSD can go all the way back to 1.4450 and USDJPY can retrace below 89 to test 88-86 levels.

Here is the story with EURUSD, green line is where I would convert my shorts into longs.

I will update once the pattern is confirmed.

USDJPY was a rocket

 

As I said USDJPY should bottom out near 89.30 and it never broken even the low of my entry range 89.10 (day’s low was 89.13).

So I am in the trade since 89.299 and currently holding my positions at 89.90 while it traded above 90 for couple of minutes and poised to break 91.50 in no time.

Read this for more why we entered this trade.

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/usdjpy-should-bottom-out-near-8925-8910.html

Trade Update: I finally got out of USDJPY long as it possibly completed the wave, although there are further chances for it to go higher but risks have increased.

Booked out with 80 pips profit @ 90.10 , was long since 89.30

Update on NIFTY

 

Last week I talked about NIFTY going for a BIG correction and just after I said that, the very next day it started to correct and look how it gave up nearly 9% of the highs (5313) while I suggested to go short @ 5275.

See the blog I posted earlier

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/nifty-going-back-to-4000_23.html

I see the first major support for the Nifty around 4600, but that cannot hold markets for longer term… we are going to see 4000 or even 3800 level. Too bold levels but we will see them for sure.

So what can we do here in this situation, just sit back and watch market to fall.. definitely not. Go start accumulating… and be choosy.

Few good stocks looks very good to me, RIL, RIL and RIL.  I would advise to buy in 10 lots and pick 10% of the total that you want on every 2-3% fall below 1040.

We can see  all the way to 900-850 level in RIL but we should not wait till that happen and pick it around 1040,1020,1000,980… and so on…

Couple of my favorite stocks which can make a very good portfolio

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFOSYSTCH)

Bharti Airtel (BHARTIARTL)

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUL)

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. (JPASSOCIAT)

DLF Ltd. (DLF)

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL)

Unitech Ltd. (UNITECH)

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (SUNPHARMA)

Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCOM)

SBI  (SBIN)

Tata Motors Ltd. (TATAMOTORS)

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. (RELINFRA)

Hindalco Industries (HINDALCO)

Here is a snapshot of the above folio in the past 4 days and see how the portfolio changed its value compared to Sensex

Disclaimer: I personally have vested interested in some of the stocks and may pick more or sell them all anytime without any disclosure.

Silver is shinning !!!

 

Hey all, my first possible trade in Silver which seem to be shinning like anything at the moment. The pattern seem quite bullish and it can go all the way to touch 19 against USD

Here is the trade idea:

Long around: 16.50-16.75

Stop: 16.35

Book profit: 19.15-19.50

Update: As expected it retraced from the Asian session’s highs to near my entry level. I have a limit order waiting at 16.50 and it should get filled in. It’s relatively a mid term call may be a month or so.

USDJPY should bottom out near 89.25-89.10

 

USDJPY may look overall bearish but I am going to pick another bottom which appear to be the 50% retracement level for the previous bull run and could possibly be making another bullish wave in 4H chart

Here is the trade idea:

Long @ 89.30 -89.10

SL @ 88.90

Target @ 90.55-90.65

 

Update: As time passed I see the pattern more clearly, sorry for attaching more than just trend lines to the chart. It seem like it completed its Elliott Wave pattern on the 4HR chart. Not just that, it was stopped just above couple of pips above the 50% retracement level which sits @ 89.28

I have my limit buy order placed at 89.30 with SL @ 89 and first target is at 92

Update: So it touched the 50% retracement level, filled in my order and bounced back above it. Trend looks intact but I have my strict SL @ 88.90

Trade update : 26 Jan 2010

 

EURUSD reached my target per this blog post (lowest made was 1.4072, target was 1.4090)

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/eurusd-15min-chart-looking-bearish.html

but as I said, it breached the system rules by going higher than the previous pivot high so I get out of the trade with just a 10pip Stop loss.

 

USDJPY moved half way after US session closed yesterday to touch 90.55 before slipping back to below the previous pivot low @ 89.78 and test 89.50. I personally never leave my overnight trades without SL while I sleep and instead of strict SL I prefer trailing SL when I am in profit.

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/usdjpy-looking-bullish-for-some.html

So I was kicked out of USDJPY in 50pips profit @ 90.35

EURUSD 15min chart looking bearish

 

EURUSD is looking somewhat bearish for a short trip down for at least 50 pips of profit.

Here is the trade idea:

Short @ 1.4170-1.4175

Stop Loss @ 1.4180-1.4185

Take Profit @ 1.4090-1.4100

Edit: I went into the trade @ 1.4168 as soon as it broke the upper trend line of the channel. I will keep the SL @ 5 pips above the previous pivot high which comes to 1.4182

EDIT 2: As the time progressed the target has increased and EURUSD is going in our direction, SL is still the same

Final Update: It went half way in our direction but another contradictory wave in 5min chart invalidated our 15min target. It hit my SL @ 1.4180 and I am out of trade. It may retrace back to the target but I would not trade it unless another clear wave is visible.

USDJPY looking bullish for some recovery

 

USDJPY got beaten down is certainly on a downtrend going forward to possibly retest 85-86 levels if it is unable to sustain above 89.25. Although talking about short term.. a day or two it is looking bullish for a short term recovery to retest the resistance zone around 92.

Here is the trade idea: Long around 89.90 and target 91.90, stop loss at 89.70

US markets ready for a double bottom ?

 

I personally do not trade US markets quite often (except Forex) but I track them very closely to predict the next big move in the global markets. This is another write up that I had before I put up this blog.

Written on 9th January 2010

Absolutely no reason fundamentally for such a larger fall but if I were trading Dow, I would have shorted today with a SL @ yearly high

First target is around 10150 & which will take us closer to the larger wave waiting for further fall. The blue line should act as support and if broken then will take it to around 9200 levels where the bullish wave started back in October.

 

So I went back to look at what I said on 9^th Jan. Yesterday (22 January 2010) , just after 14 calendar days DJIA touched my target level and breached it as well. 

The first smaller wave completed but what it did interestingly is broken the another larger bearish wave which has a target too scary.. around 9000-9200

No one expected this kind of move in just 3 days when everyone was talking about new yearly high and positive numbers. Smart money used all those news to distribute their stocks and get ready for a reversal.

I think some big news is in the making to trigger even larger sell off.

Nifty going back to 4000?

 

This is the chart that I prepared on 18th January when NIFTY closed at near the 52-week high 5275, I shared this chart with some of my close friends as I did not had this blog at that time. I know people who made killing money by buying 5200 put @ just 40 bucks which touched 250 within 3 days…

This was the content of my write up…

Hope you had a great time making money in one of the biggest rally in recent time but let me warn you that we have possibly done with the rally.

This is my prediction and we are going to correct from here on, may be a last attempt to touch around 5400-5500 in NIFTY but then we are going to fall like a stone in coming months.

Here is the monthly chart of Nifty which predicted well in advance the crash of 2008 on March 2008 with a target below 3000. Similarly the same chart was able to predict in March 2009 that a big rally is coming with a target above 5250 which we hit already.

So now what, there could be two things that can happen from here on.… we correct right here and fall to test near 4500-4700 and continue the further up move above 5500 to test around 5800 or we go and test 5500 level by budget time and then fall sharply below 4150 by November 2010 or even before that.

About the blog or should I say about the Wolf

 

Welcome to the blog. I have created this blog to share my experiences in the world of Technical Analysis of charts for Equities, Futures, Commodities and even Forex.

I am not limiting myself to any country specific charts but I will be primarily focusing on US & India markets where I have most of my vested interest. I like to keep my charts as simple as just a Bar chart (or candlestick) and couple of trendlines – no fancy indicators, no volume, RSI, Stoch, blahh..blahh..blahh..blahh.. why? because they add lots of complexity to the chart while the beauty lies in simplicity.

I have over 3 years of experience in trading stock markets and like any noob I started investing without knowing what I am doing. I used to read from the horses mouth and believe that whatever they are saying is going to happen and lose most of my money. I tried various indicators, techniques but none of them was good enough to be repeated again and again. Frustrated and angry about the way market react and how rapid moves wipe off all my hard earned money forced me to go around and search for that Oracle who could show me the future and tell me the truth where the market will end up eventually.

That was probably my best day of life when I came to discover that there is indeed such system / method to see the future when majority cannot. That day I discovered a system which keep you out of the market for most of the time and lets you enter at the best time and exit at the best time as well.

Enough of the guessing, yes, I am talking about Wolfe Wave. Originally discovered by Bill Wolfe (www.wolfewave.com) and practiced by many professional traders across the world to predict some of the biggest & most profitable trades.

Talking about the recent 2008 crash in late 2008, the system was able to predict the crash well in advanced around 1-2 months in advance and with the target as well. If that’s not yet surprising enough it was able to predict the start of a rally and the target of the rally as well.

Here I would like to present to you a chart of my favorite Index – Nifty (India’s Benchmark Index)

With that all said, I would be posting the possible waves generated in the market and guide you in advance to take the appropriate action and profit from the move.

Hope you enjoy this journey and profit from it.

 

DISCLAIMER: PLEASE DO NOT BET YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY ON WHAT I SAY OR DO. FEEL FREE TO READ THE BLOG AND ENJOY THE CONTENT WITHOUT EVEN THINKING ABOUT TRADING IT. I PERSONALLY MAY OR MAY NOT BE TRADING THE SAME CHART