Wolfe Wave India: 2010

Thursday, October 28, 2010

After a long break , here are few trades to follow

Short Bullion market… short Silver & Gold with a stop at all time high of both, I think we have made a all time high and it is not going to breach anytime soon while there is a possibility of Silver to collapse as much as 50% from the current levels.

Gold is looking for a level near $1050 while Silver should see somewhere $12 in the spot market, both commodities are in uptrend and the momentum is very strong. If we are going to trade against the trend we must do so without huge leverage, play safe and without the intention to make zillions in a single trade. Slow and steady wins the race!!!

USD is looking strong to me, go buy it… dump all the Yen you been holding (if at all), don’t think that Euro is any weak here.. Stay long in EURUSD and also in USDJPY. USDINR, if you must play, is looking good as well and you can expect near about 300-400 pips easily in it.

Equities, had a great run and great momentum, especially in India. I am neutral in Indian Equities and looking for a test of 6350 (in NIFTY) before any collapse. You may see near 5850 in coming days/weeks and I advice you buy it with a stop at 5800 for a target of 6250-6300.

DJI, is not looking any better.. keep the magic number of 11,111 in your watch and stay short below it and long above it. Better if you could wait a week or two to see where DJI close.. if above the magic number then only go long otherwise stay short.

Disclaimer: I may or may not have vested interest in the above suggested instruments. Please do your own analysis before investing/betting on my words.

Until next time, Have a good one!!!

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Life is busy and I am little too much engaged into it.

Hi,

I have been approached by couple of you guys who liked my posts to continue but being honest my life is little busy to post anything for sometime. I will try to come back as soon as possible. Thank you for your messages.

- The Wolf Catcher

Monday, March 29, 2010

Trade Update: Book 100% longs in Silver – 500% profit in 8 days

and here

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/get-out-of-silver-shorts-target-hit.html

My target was 17.25 in the pullback and see its trading at 17.40

so how we traded over the past 2 weeks?

Short @ 17.55 , Covered @ 16.55 – 10,000 pips profit

Long @ 16.60 , Covered @ 17.40 – 8,000 pips profit

Overall above 18,000 pips profit in less than 8 days which is $1800 profit on a single Micro lot of 1000 units and investment of just $300… overall 500% return

Friday, March 26, 2010

Trade Update… Silver Pullback

I asked you to book out of Silver shorts and get on other side for a pullback… I asked to cover shorts near 16.5 and it did 16.55 before pulling back… my target was 17+ and its already trading at 16.92…

Target is still open and stretched to 17.18-17.25

Get out of longs near 17.20-17.25

Get out of Silver shorts… Target Hit

Target was below 16.8 then later downgraded to 16.5 … its trading at 16.55 mark and I see it bottoming out near 16.45… which is near 10,000pips or $1000 on an investment of just $300… 300+% profit in 5 days.

Book out near 16.5-16.45 and go long in Silver with a Stop @ 16.35 for a target of 17+ in coming days…

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Sell RPOWER for a big fall

Sell RPOWER or BUY 150PA for April @ 6-7
Downside Target: 142.98 <-> 141.36 <-> 139.05 <-> 136.11 <-> 132.38
Stop is 2% higher from today's high ie.. 153

Chart

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Put Options for April Series

Buy these dirt cheap Put Options for April series

ACC 950PA @ 29 for April

AMBUJACEM 115PA @ 2.8 for April

BHARTIARTL 300PA @ 8.5 for April

CIPLA 340PA @ 11 for April

Trade Update: BHARTIARTL Shorts gave over 30% gains

Bharti 320PA touched 20.25 which is 35% return from suggested level of 15

Futures touched low of 305.5 from suggested 318 level…. hope you are enjoying it.

Book 50% and ride the rest with stop at cost… book 100% at 280 levels in Spot

Monday, March 22, 2010

Forex Trade Updates

First of all the star among the rest… Silver Short

Suggested to short near 17.45-17.5, see here http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/short-silver-target-below-1685.html

Target was below 16.85… current price is 16.60 which is 8000 pips or $800 with a Micro lot 1000 units… over 200% return on investment within 4 days.

Next trade… Short NZDUSD… See here http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/sell-nzdusd-target-130-230-pips.html

Suggested to short @ 0.71145 for a target of 130-230 pips, touched 0.70.. which is a good 115 pips profit in 1 day.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Trade Update: Short Silver gave over 5000pips

See how Silver was dumped as USD rallied.. Book 90% profit and ride the rest for a target well below 16.8-16.5

Sell NZDUSD – target 130 – 230 pips

NZDUSD is looking weak on 4HR chart for 3 possible targets.. 0.6975 - 0.6927 - 0.6880

Trade Update: Short Silver

Suggested here : http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/short-silver-target-below-1685.html

Silver is down already by over 2500pips

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Short Silver : Target below 16.85

Silver is looking so bearish to me...

Target is below 16.85

Change or No Change :: US Key Interest Rates

Tonight is another such night where everyone is assuming that where FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke , come out of meeting and shout “No Change” but I have this gut feeling that tonight could be the night where they pull up their socks… err I mean their Interest Rates

Let’s see another 4 hours to go for the Interest Rates Decision and then Consumer Confidence number after 1 Hour of Interest Rates Decision

My prediction: They Hike their rates… Gold/Silver should be dumped along with all currency pairs and USD should rally. US Equities should make a double top here and go back below their 50% retracement levels by this Thursday 18th.

Big expectations.. lets see how it goes.

Trade Update : BALRAMCHIN up 5% from our buy level

Suggested here when everyone was dumping sugar stocks and no one was able to believe that anyone would ever wanted sugar again. Gosh.. looks like I take too much sugar daily in my tea and this stock surged nearly 5% from my buy level

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/honey-honey-oh-my-sugar.html

Monday, March 15, 2010

Silver 1H chart gave you entire day’s range in a single trade…

Who said you can't buy at bottom & sell at top... see this.

A perfect wave that I had been watching on an Hourly Chart of Silver since early morning... up move from day's low to day's high.... complete day's range in a single wave...

Here is the video of it...

Honey Honey.... oh my Sugar...

I do not know how overall Sugar sector is going to perform in coming weeks but I certainly see two stocks from Sugar pack to completed its correction and most likely about to jump back.

Here are my Trades for the next 6-8 weeks.. I expect first target to hit within next 2-3 weeks itself

Buy BAJAJHIND around 148, Stop 129, Targets 167,182,193,205,221,242
Buy BALRAMCHIN around 93, Stop 87, Targets 109,119,128,137,149,165

Charts

Friday, March 12, 2010

Buy BALRAMCHIN @ CMP … ie. 93

Balramchin should have completed its correction cycle today and can give a good return in couple of months.

Buy @ current price of 93 and look for 125+ levels.. may be 132 in next 2-4 months..

No stop loss given as it’s a good stock and should outperform in coming months… hold it with a horizon of 6 months.

Reason behind the cover short/go long in BALRAMCHIN

Thursday, March 11, 2010

US Numbers evening…

Another important evening with respect to US Data in another 1 hour

	Previous	Expectations
Trade Balance	-40.20B	-41.00B
Initial Jobless Claims	469.00K	455.00K
Natural Gas Storage	-116.00B

Looking at various charts USD, US 10Y Bond, Gold, Silver, Dow, S&P... I am predicting & expecting numbers to leave negative sentiment atleast to start with. Lets see how numbers are...

Update… Numbers were bad not not too bad… still here is what happened

USD Down
Bond Rally
Gold rebound
Silver rebound
Dow , S&P Down

Gold & Silver are the biggest stars

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Short Silver Spot – XAG/USD

Silver is looking bearish to me for a target of 17.25-17.18 in Hourly chart. On a Daily chart it is looking bearish for a retest of below 15 levels.. may be 14.55

See how the short went.. instant profit…

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Back to Back 2 Waves on a Nifty 15min chart today… gave over 40 points

Nifty 15min chart and it gave over 40 points. The setup was WolfeWave and two perfect waves traded.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Market is all about waves…

Waves exists almost always in the charts and this is so satisfactory when you are able to spot them and profit from them.

See the video of Silver’s SPOT chart where there were 2 waves one after another one bullish then second bearish in the 15minute chart

The bearish wave is still pending for its target… I will update you once it hit the target..

Do let me know if that is helpful to you or if you have any doubts.

UPDATE:

See what happened to Silver

Nifty Futures… near top… put yourself in reverse gear now

Nifty Future has support around 5115-5112, which if holds then one can expect pullback to 5142 level but if that breaks, than targets are 5080-5064,5024. Looks like rally is over

5100PE from 66 to 77.70 in a matter of 15minutes..

Suggested to average from 85 @ 66 level… average comes to 75… look 5100PE made 77.70 within 15minutes time…

Intraday 13% profit after deducting brokerage within 15 minutes… thats perfection :)

Average down 5100PE if holding from 85 levels…

If holding 5100PE then average down… if not holding then BUY fresh at current levels near 66

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Follow me on YouTube for more Viblogs (Video Blogs)

I am starting a new series of Screen Casts on Wolfe Waves…

Follow me on http://www.youtube.com/CatchTheWolf

Nifty’s Prediction for Next 3 Months

Since everyone is talking about bearish levels so I would start this with a bullish tone for a change.

Nifty is going to touch 5450 by 27th May 2010

but first 4650-4700 within by April first week then 5475-5500 by last week of May or first week of June

Watch Video for more detail…

Saturday, March 6, 2010

US Stocks and my prediction before the market open

Even before the market opened, even before the job numbers were out I predicted following levels, and here is the update on their current Highs for the day so far…

DOW & JONES
Upside Target: 10635, Downside Target: 10040
Day's High: 10,571.94

S&P 500
Upside Target: 1138, Downside Target: 1075
Day's High: 1,139.38

NASDAQ
Upside Target: 2318 , Downside Target: 2200
Day's High: 2,327.03

Friday, March 5, 2010

NFP Numbers Update

I predicted better than expected numbers and indeed they were far better than expectations
Here is a snap shot how things panned out… I suggested to Short Gold/Silver and long USD
Click on the Image to see the Full Size Image

Trade Update: Nifty 5100PE

CMP is 107… that is 30% + gains in less than 3 hours.. suggested to buy @ 85 here

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/03/buy-nifty-5100pe-cmp-85-target-4990-in.html

Hold them tight for a target below 5000 in SPOT or book atleast 50%

Buy Nifty 5100PE , CMP: 85 , Target 4990 in Spot, Stop Loss: 5210 in Spot

Or atleast hedge your Nifty Longs by adding Nifty Puts.

Expecting better than expectations – US NFP Numbers

Current waves in DJI, SPX and even in NASDAQ suggest atleast 5-6% cut from the highs.
DOW & JONES

Upside Target: 10635, Downside Target: 10040

S&P 500

Upside Target: 1138, Downside Target: 1075

NASDAQ

Upside Target: 2318 , Downside Target: 2200

Nifty : Upside Target: 5190 , Downside Target: 4835

Hey yaa everyone…

I have been busy lately with my personal life and was not trading actively. I wont be trading quite as active for some more time but will be tracking the market when I get some time.

I have been following Gold quite closely and it may be possibly done with the rally and looking for a pull back… maybe a 100% pull back to make a double bottom.

This is the weekly chart setup and if we consider the lower line as target then see how perfect was the target… the estimated price at arrival should not exceed more than 1145 and yesterday it made a high of 1145.18 ( I was expecting a 10% rally from the lows and that is almost over 9.65%)

Now look at this Daily chart and why I see pain in Long Gold situation…

I see it max making an attempt to touch 1155 and then a possible double bottom… argh.. that’s gonna hurt and I already booked my longs and added few shorts at 1143.. I would be a ruthless bear on a breach of 1130

Now let’s look at the S&P 500 Index and see it is also making a bearish wave pattern… although the volume was not great in last two days which is very much needed .. maybe they want to make a final attempt to go short near 1140 levels.

Similar pattern in Nasdaq Composite… be cautious and atleast book profit on longs or hedge your positions.

Friday, February 19, 2010

News of the Day

FED Decided to increase bank discount rate after US Markets Shut
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f51cab54-1...44feab49a.html
Futures fall sharply to 1%

Hang Seng Down 3%
Nikkie Down 1%
Australia Down 1%
SGX Nifty Down 1%
US Futures Stayed 1-1.5% down

Expect around 2% cut in Indian Markets but dont be fool if it tries to reach for 4920+ before going back and giving away all the gains..

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Go Long in Nifty Futures… Avg till 4865… Stop @ 4860

Add longs in Nifty Futures @ 4875, avg till 4865 .. target is 4920+ … Stop @ 4860

Trade Update: What happened to Gold, USD, & S&P 500

Today was another green day for US as the indices closed around 0.5% in green. Gold had a good run in the morning but later gave up most of the gains, not only for today but half the gains of yesterday which is expected as it broke out of the channel.

Let the pictures do talking, here is a chart of Gold… remember I have been suggesting it since $1050 levels.

Now there could be two stops… one stop could be at the pink line which does not appear to be the case if we look at the volume and if we are able to break past the pink line then it should inch toward the blue line and make a new all time high in Gold.

Ok, so what about USD… it is playing hide n seek with the ‘sweet zone’ and today once again went back in sweet zone to close near $80.5… which is good for bears to short again or add more shorts. Unless we see a close above 80.85 which was the last high, the momentum remains in the hands of bears.

Ohk.. lets look at S&P 500 chart and why this dead cat was bouncing.. yes it is a dead cat and no surprise if we see a gap down tomorrow in S&P 500. Look how it made a bullish wave which completed its target today… next is what? Possible 100% pullback of this rally and go below 1040.

I am keeping my call to stay short and add more shorts in Nifty, S&P, Dow and USD.. while stay long in Gold… we should further see a good rally in Gold.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Buy 4800PE @ 34 and look for a target of 4770-4780 by tomorrow in Nifty

Buy 4800PE @ 34 (LTP) and target is around 70-90 by tomorrow or till Friday

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Sell Nifty Futures @ 4815, Stop 4822, Target 4778

Levels to watch out for today... Nifty Futures
Short around 4810, Avg till 4844, SL @ 4850, Book @ 4785
Long around 4785, Avg till 4775, SL @ 4770, Book @ 4810

Stay Short Below 4770 and Stay Long above 4850
Below 4770 expect 4685, above 4850 expect 4920-4930

Friday, February 12, 2010

Trade Update… US Down 1.5%

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/warning-danger-ahead.html

http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2010/02/us-market-is-looking-for-another-3-4.html

I warned you in the last India session , while we were still open to book 100% out of 4800CE and buy 4700PE.. I also suggested that US markets are going for a 3% cut first and then even further…

Watch us markets where they opened…

Hope you picked the 4700PE… as Nifty is going below 4500 this time… you going to get lots of profit… enjoy!!!

A Golden Penny…. golden gains!!!

Penny stocks could be of great return if executed properly. Here is the update on my prediction just 4 days back

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/lets-look-at-gold-once-again-and-see.html

and here are the returns.. I suggest to book 50% profit and keep rest with a SL @ cost

Gold Rush!!!!

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/trade-update-gold-vs-dollar-which-is.html

I have been suggested “GO GOLD…. GO GOLD” and its keep on riding my predictions… hope you are having fun and great profits as well…

Let’s see how gold looks like today…

US market is looking for another 3-4% correction.. may be on Friday

Here is my prediction… that we might see another 3-4% cut in both DOW JONES as well as S&P 500 Index

Next week should be a good one for bears.. watch out you bulls.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Warning… Danger ahead!!!!

Do not be over optimistic about the recovery that we seen today. Nifty is possibly headed towards below 4500 mark very soon… use this as caution and pick some 4500PE for the month of February

Trade Update: Nifty 4800CE – 45% return in single day

Yesterday I gave a call to buy 4800CE between 82-84, it was actually given in yesterday market hours when it was trading near 85 and I suggested to buy 4800CE @ 82-84 , SL @ 75 and Target was 110-120

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/why-did-indian-markets-fall-today.html

Today, just after 1 day it touched my target and made an intraday high @ 118 before closing at 105

Why did Indian Markets fall today?

Entire world markets were trading higher, US closed near 2% in gains and even UK opened and stayed in green but Indian Markets fall like a stone… why? The answer is all behind the waves…

After completing its target I am expecting at least 50% pullback to 4785, while in SPOT Nifty it is making a pattern which is suggesting a pullback all the way till 4840-4850 in the SPOT Nifty

I have a call to Buy 4800CE @ 82-84 , Stop @ 75 and Target above 110 – 120 in coming days.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Trade Update – Gold vs Dollar , which is better?

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/these-are-golden-moments.html

On 5th February just half an hour before the US Non Farm Payroll numbers were out, I predicted that USD is going to correct and Gold is looking for a rally. Today is 9th Feb and lets see how Gold vs Dollar & USD Index Futures looks like on the chart

Gold vs Dollar – Suggested a BUY @ 1050, LTP : 1078

USD Index Futures

Suggested to short near $80.75 and last trade price is $80

Monday, February 8, 2010

Lets look at the gold once again and see what its saying

Now if you do not want to play directly in the Gold then there are other options available… penny stocks :-)

Here are my favorite picks and stocks that are impacted directly by Gold Price

Flawless Diamonds India Ltd. - BSE Code: 523576 , Last Price: 3.17

Rajesh Exports – BSE Code: 531500 , Last Price: 101.10

Vaibhav Gems Ltd – BSE Code: 532156 , Last Price: 31.05

Golkunda Diamonds and Jewellery Ltd – BSE Code: 523676 , Last Price: 16.85

Out of these 4 stocks, Rajesh & Flawless were down 4% & 1% today while Vaibhav & Golkunda both were up 5% and there were no sellers available in them.

Trade Update: Nifty 4700PE – 40% gain in one day

See these post first…

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/why-did-us-markets-pull-back-at-close.html

I suggested that Indian markets will rally on Special Session and they indeed did… I suggested to buy 4700PE just before the close of the special session trading and it closed at 93

Today market opened in green to shake out the weak hands but see the way it dropped to my first target of 4675 (day’s low 4675.40)

Here I suggested that we will see 4640-4675 and what a bounce after it touched my target.

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/02/trade-update-nifty-is-dead-cat-now.html

Today when Nifty touched 4675 we were in 45% return in 4700PE which was trading above 135.

Hope you booked your profit, if not they do not worry as market is looking to break 4500 very soon and I would advice to hold onto your 4700PE. You might see a day or two of pullback but that should not shake you out of the trade.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

These are the “Golden Moments”

Gold has been beaten down hard and I see a potential up move in the Gold. This will support my take that USD is looking for some correction. I am looking for a 10% upside in the Gold from current levels and similar move can be expected in NSE Traded Gold ETF ( GOLDBEES )

Buy @ 1605

Stop @ 1575

Target @ 1750

Chart

GOLDBEES

Weekly Analysis of NIFTY-FIFTY Stocks

I have decided to do a Weekly Analysis of Nifty Fifty Stocks and look for any emerging wave.

Not every stock MUST fall in this falling market and here are my two bullish picks for this week

HEROHONDA
Risky Buy: 1582 (at price)
Conservative Buy: above 1620
Stop Loss: 1495
Target: 1800+

Chart

ICICIBANK
Risky Buy: 800 (at price)
Conservative Buy: above 810
Stop Loss: 775
Target: 1010+

Chart

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Why did US markets pull back at close?

Everything was going as planned and US was down all the way to 2.5% most of the session but last 1 hour was interesting which pulled the markets back in green.

Here is what happen in the last 1 hour of the market.. it made a bullish wave in 15min chart

Now this could be a good move for Indian markets to make a possible Bull Trap. I am expecting Indian Markets to rally in a Special Session tomorrow between 10am-11:30am

Yes NSE & BSE both will be open on Saturday for 1.30 hours.. may be for operators? Whatever it may be.. I would buy at the money puts… looking at the way US market came back we might see 4750-4775 level where I will buy 4700PE and hold them for Monday

Friday, February 5, 2010

US Non Farm Payroll Number Prediction

Look at the USD Index chart and see what its saying….

Looking quite bearish to me… numbers should be out in another 30mins… my prediction is we going to sell like crazy… :)

When is this correction going to end… maybe within February

Look at this interesting chart of two totally different countries India & US… they both have a wave pattern and both are looking for completing the wave on the exact same date which happen to be 23rd February.

I would continue to ride shorts unless market touch down to those target lines… falling down.

I have my positional Nifty & DOW short call running from levels of 5275 & 10680 respectively..

USDCHF – Possibly going to correct from here

USDCHF is looking for a possible correction and considering the the NFP data tomorrow, which most likely going to be BAD, very BAD then this equation stands correct and it can get back to the center of the previous channel.

Trade Idea: Short on a break of 1.069

Stop Loss: 50 pips

First Target: 1.036

Second Target: 1.02

Final Target: 1.00

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Trade Update: USDJPY – Picked another Top to short !!!

Yesterday I confirmed that the bull run in USDJPY is looking for a correction, at least for some 100-150 pips.

I suggested to short @ 91.17 while the Day’s high was 91.27 and current price is 90.35… above 85pips already

Update… it was quick 110 pips… and I closed my trade.

Update on US Numbers

Initial Jobless Claim:

Previous: 472.00K , Forecast: 455.00K , Actual: 480.00K

Non Farm Productivity:

Previous: 8.10% , Forecast: 6.00% , Actual: 6.20%

Unit Labor Cost:

Previous: -5.20% , Forecast: -2.50% , Actual: -4.40%

I updated you in advanced :)

What does this means to You as an Indian Investor. US equities markets are looking for a reason to sell. They been selling on good numbers , they been selling on very good numbers as well. Ofcourse they are going to sell on bad news :) So your shorts are going to gain.. I recommend buying 4700PE in Nifty

US Job Numbers looking bad to me – USD Index looking in bad shape

Just before the US Job numbers coming out in another 15 minutes… here is my prediction that they are going to be BAD. USD Index Future should fall all the way to 76.23 and EURUSD which although came too far below should go back on for a bounce above 1.41 in coming time

EURUSD – Trade Closed

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-short.html

http://blog.vikasverma.com/2010/01/trade-update-eurusd-pattern-looks.html

Euro traded almost near to my first target 1.4040 but was stopped at 1.4026 being the highest. The habit of closing all the trades on close of London Session kept me in profit.

I would suggest this advice to everyone, I trade mostly in London Session as being the most active session. Try an ensure that you close your position on the close of London session or atleast leave a Trailing Stop Loss of 10% of your overall profit.

I was able to manage only 105pips from this three day move and got out at my SL level 1.3850. Though I still have my believe that this is going to be a start of new rally in Euro but “rules are rules”

I will update once I get back into Euro…